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Bay State flu ?crisis? Outbreak worse, and earlier than expected

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  • Bay State flu ?crisis? Outbreak worse, and earlier than expected

    By Marie Szaniszlo, Jessica Van Sack, Richard Weir and Edward Mason
    Friday, November 20, 2009 - Updated 43m ago


    Weeks before its predicted peak, the swine flu pandemic already has hit a historic high in the Bay State, with one hospital unit reporting a third of its nurses felled by the raging virus and a local health official warning that the Thanksgiving holiday could only accelerate the outbreak.
    Turkey day could be ?a recipe for viral transmission,? said Frank Singleton, Lowell?s public health chief. ?We may have a really bad week.?
    H1N1 cases statewide have doubled since the spring, and the outbreak is about 75 percent higher than the last two winter flu seasons, said Dr. Lauren Smith, medical director at the state Department of Public Health.
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    ?We have seen over the last few weeks a significant increase in influenza-like activity,? Smith said.
    Hub emergency rooms have been especially hard hit, with the percentage of flu patients surging seven-fold last week - .9 percent last year compared with 6.7 percent this year, said Boston Public Health Commission spokeswoman Ann Scales.
    ?Normally we don?t see influenza in November in this region,? said Dr. Anne Stack, chief of Emergency Medicine at Children?s Hospital Boston, which hit a seasonal record Nov. 1 with 260 patients compared to 170 last year. ?Our epidemic of seasonal flu doesn?t start ?til January.?
    Even those caring for swine flu patients are becoming stricken. One 16-bed Intensive Care Unit at UMass Memorial Medical Center in Worcester saw three of nine nurses out sick with flu symptoms Wednesday night, said nurse Ellen Smith. ?Our patients are getting sicker and sicker,? Smith said.
    One previously healthy 25-year-old woman has been hospitalized for two weeks - and is among the increasing number of H1N1 patients now on dialysis.
    ?We are seeing hospitals totally unprepared to deal with the crisis,? said David Schildmeier, spokesman for the Massachusetts Nurses Association.
    Data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control show flu activity nationwide is ?substantially above historic levels in all U.S. surveillance systems.? WebMD.com reports HINI has already killed perhaps as many as 6,000 Americans.
    The CDC estimated some 22 million Americans came down with swine flu by Oct. 17, and some 98,000 were hospitalized. The feds said the number of flu patients seeking medical attention was higher in September and October than in the peak of any flu season since record-keeping began in 1977.
    Meanwhile, swine flu vaccines have only recently become available at local hospitals and health clinics. Nationwide, only about 44 million doses have been shipped, about one third of the amount officials had originally predicted.
    Some epidemiologists believe the outbreak is peaking - but no one can be sure it won?t get worse.
    ?We thought that once before and we weren?t right,? said Harvard School of Public Health epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch, adding, ?There is a real possibility of a second wave this winter.?
    The swine flu scourge has the T Riders Union fearing crowded subway cars have turned into high-speed germ carriers.
    ?We think the MBTA can prevent high-risk situations with more frequent service to avoid overcrowding,? said T Riders organizer Rene Mardones.
    -snip-


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